Can electrification turn climate pledges into fossil-fuel cuts?
The EU is lowering expectations for next month's COP31 summit in Turkey and emphasizing implementation, particularly replacing fossil fuels with electricity across the economy. [1][4] Turkey is proposing a voluntary target for electricity to reach 35 percent of countries' energy consumption by 2035, with EU environment ministers due to establish their common position next Monday. [4] The shift comes as fossil-fuel production continues to rise despite rapid renewable-energy growth. [5]
Electrification links climate diplomacy to practical changes in transport, heating and other energy uses, but electricity is not automatically clean: coal and gas still supplied 34 percent and 22 percent of global electricity generation, respectively, in 2025. Replacing direct fossil-fuel use therefore needs to be considered alongside how the additional electricity is generated. [4][5]
Key insights
- The proposed 35 percent target concerns electricity's share of energy consumption—not renewable energy's share of electricity generation. Those are different measures of the transition. [4][5]
- Solar generation rose 28 percent in 2025, reaching 8.5 percent of global electricity generation, while renewables collectively virtually matched coal's 34 percent share. [5]
- Higher fossil-fuel prices and energy-security concerns are shaping policy, while EU budget pressures are limiting willingness to make further commitments. [4][5]
- The EU's implementation message faces a credibility test: the commission proposed postponing a methane law's implementation from 2027 to 2028. [4]