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Three flashpoints testing fragile political orders

Major security developments are unfolding in Yemen, Ethiopia and Pakistan: Yemen’s government has announced a nationwide campaign against the Houthis, federal forces have retaken Tigray’s capital, and Imran Khan’s supporters are marching toward Islamabad.[4][5][6]

The field note

2 sources · 2 items
  1. The government says de-escalation options have been exhausted, while the Houthis have been asked to surrender t…
  2. The Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities after 50 Saudi-led strikes in Yemen wi…
  3. The United States is providing intelligence support for Saudi operations, and regional and European countries a…
Story 012 sources

How Bab el-Mandeb pulled Yemen back toward full-scale war

Yemen’s internationally recognised government announced a military campaign to recover all territory controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis.[5][7] The decision follows a Houthi offensive that captured the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait and about 150 kilometres of Red Sea coastline, while further advances threaten the road linking Taiz and Aden.[5]

Why it matters

Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea’s southern exit and a key shipping route between Asia and the Mediterranean, making control of the strait internationally consequential.[5] Renewed fighting is also worsening Yemen’s humanitarian crisis: the World Food Programme says more than 150,000 people have been displaced, while three in four families in some areas are going hungry.[5][7]

Key insights

  • The government says de-escalation options have been exhausted, while the Houthis have been asked to surrender their weapons.[5]
  • The Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities after 50 Saudi-led strikes in Yemen within 12 hours.[5]
  • The United States is providing intelligence support for Saudi operations, and regional and European countries are supplying defensive assistance.[5]
  • Saudi Arabia’s intervention began in 2015 but failed to defeat the Houthis; a 2022 truce largely held until this year.[5]

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